时代观察：禀赋与虚耗
G4 Editor’s Observation: Endowments and Waste
English
Humanity explores the same broad horizon of civilisation along many different paths. Different regions and communities have developed their own routes, priorities and understandings of the future. In principle, we could exchange more experience, share more resources, and move forward through mutual learning.
Yet the longer I watch the present, the harder it becomes to ignore a troubling contrast.
Our age possesses computing power, energy, capital, knowledge and human talent on a scale difficult to compare with earlier periods. At the same time, some of the most valuable intellectual and material resources available to us continue to be consumed by local competition, struggles over influence and narrative, conflicts over rules and frameworks, and the pursuit of fleeting prestige and advantage.
This is not to say that competition has no value, or that rules, interests and ownership do not matter. They are real components of how societies function.
What troubles me is a more basic question:
Now that humanity possesses so much capacity, how much of it are we actually using to address problems that matter, and how much are we consuming in repeated struggles against one another?
I find it increasingly difficult to ignore this question.
中文
人类循着多条道路，向着文明的同一座高峰探索。不同地域与群体，各有自己的路径，也有各自对未来的理解。理论上，我们本可以更多地互通经验、共享资源，在彼此借鉴中共同向上。
然而，走到今天，我越来越难以忽视一种令人不安的反差。
我们这个时代拥有前所未有的算力、能源、资本、知识与人才。与此同时，其中相当一部分最珍贵的智力和物质资源，却仍然不断消耗在局部的竞争、话语权的拉扯、规则的对抗，以及对转瞬即逝的名望与优势的追逐之中。
这并不是说竞争本身没有意义，也不是说规则、利益和权属不重要。恰恰相反，它们构成了现实社会运行的一部分。
让我感到困惑的是：当人类已经拥有如此庞大的能力之后，我们究竟把多少能力用于解决真正重要的问题，又把多少能力消耗在彼此之间的反复争夺之中？
这是我越来越难以回避的问题。
The Tools We Are Acquiring
我们正在获得的工具
English
We are acquiring increasingly powerful tools. Computing capacity is expanding rapidly. Artificial intelligence is entering scientific research, knowledge production, industry and many other areas of human activity. The infrastructure required to support it—data centres, electricity, capital and physical networks—is expanding as well, while governments and international institutions are increasingly discussing questions of energy, water, regulation and governance.
None of this is simply good or bad.
But it leads me back to a more fundamental question:
As our capabilities grow, are we learning how to use them at the same pace?
We now possess tools that would have been difficult to imagine only a generation ago. They allow us to investigate life, disease, cognition, materials, energy and the universe in ways that were once beyond practical reach. They also allow us to ask new questions about some of the long-standing limits of biological life—lifespan, memory, learning capacity and other constraints imposed by our biological nature.
And yet I sometimes experience a strong sense of disappointment.
We seem to be becoming more capable without necessarily becoming equally clear about what those capabilities are for.
中文
我们正在获得越来越强大的工具。计算能力正在快速增长，人工智能正在进入知识生产、科学研究、工业生产和社会治理的越来越多领域。数据中心所需要的电力、基础设施和资本投入也在迅速扩大；与此同时，各国和国际组织正在讨论能源、水资源、监管以及前沿人工智能的治理问题。
这些事情本身并没有简单的好坏之分。
但它们让我再次想到一个更基础的问题：
能力增长之后，人类有没有同步学会如何使用这些能力？
我们手中已经拥有了一些过去难以想象的工具。它们使我们能够更加深入地研究生命、疾病、认知、材料、能源和宇宙，也让过去许多被认为极其困难的问题第一次拥有了新的可能。
甚至对于生命本身那些长期存在的限制——寿命、记忆、学习能力，以及其他碳基生命所承受的天然边界——我们也已经开始拥有能够真正提出问题、进行实验和探索的工具。
然而，我有时会产生一种强烈的失落感：
我们似乎越来越有能力，却未必越来越清楚这些能力究竟应该被用来做什么。
Borders and the Climbing Party
国界与登山队
English
Borders, ownership, resource claims and institutional arrangements have real and often essential meanings in everyday life. But over the much longer arc of civilisation, they are also structures formed within particular historical circumstances.
What troubles me is how much human effort, material resources, capital and computing capacity can sometimes be consumed by internal friction.
If civilisation were imagined as a climbing party, it would be like a group that has already travelled a considerable distance, carrying limited ropes, fuel and provisions, only to begin consuming those reserves in a struggle over a temporary camp halfway up the mountain.
I know the analogy is imperfect.
The real world is far more complicated than a climbing party. Different communities do have genuine differences of interest, and historical problems cannot simply disappear because someone calls for everyone to “move upward together.”
But I still want to keep the image.
Because it expresses something personal:
When we possess more and more, why do we remain so easily drawn into struggles over limited positions?
中文
国界、权属、资源归属以及各种制度安排，对于现实生活当然具有真实而重要的意义。但如果把时间尺度拉长到文明的长途中，它们也只是人类历史某一阶段形成的具体结构。
让我感到遗憾的是，我们有时会耗费大量人力、物质储备、资本和算力，投入到彼此之间的内部消耗之中。
如果把文明比作一支共同攀登的队伍，这有点像登山者已经走了很远，拥有有限而珍贵的绳索、燃料和食物，却开始为了争夺半山腰的一处临时营地，彼此消耗掉原本用于继续攀登的储备。
我知道这个比喻并不完全准确。
现实世界远比一支登山队复杂。不同群体之间确实存在真实的利益差异，历史遗留的问题也不可能因为一句“共同向上”就自动消失。
但我仍然想保留这个比喻。
因为它表达的是一种非常个人的感受：
当我们拥有的东西越来越多时，为什么仍然如此容易陷入对有限位置的争夺？
Is Capability the Problem, or Direction?
能力不是问题，方向才是问题吗？
English
I once wrote the following almost instinctively:
The deficit is not human capability. It is horizons locked by immediate interests.
I still understand what I meant, but I now want to be more careful with the sentence.
Immediate interests are not necessarily false or trivial. Governments have real security concerns. Businesses have to survive. Families have to deal with the realities of everyday life. No one can live permanently in the distant future.
Perhaps the more precise question is therefore not why human beings pay attention to the present, but this:
Now that we possess such extraordinary long-term capabilities, why is it still so difficult to establish a better balance between immediate interests and long-term purposes?
That question seems closer to what I am actually trying to express.
中文
我曾经很自然地想把问题归结为一句话：
问题不在于人类缺少能力，而在于视野被眼前的短期利益牢牢禁锢。
但现在，我反而想对这句话保持一点警惕。
因为“短期利益”有时并不是虚假的问题。一个国家需要解决现实安全，一个企业需要考虑生存，一个家庭需要面对眼前的生活。任何人都不能永远生活在遥远的未来里。
所以，也许更准确的说法是：
真正值得观察的，并不是人类为什么会关注眼前，而是当我们已经拥有如此强大的长期能力之后，为什么仍然如此难以在眼前利益与长期目标之间建立更好的平衡。
这可能比简单地指责“短视”更接近我真正想表达的东西。
Why Write Any of This Down?
我为什么要记录这些？
English
I record these observations not because I believe that an essay can somehow reverse historical inertia.
I am not even certain that I have understood the problem correctly.
But I increasingly feel that when a person becomes troubled by reality, refusing to record those doubts simply because their own understanding is incomplete may mean that the questions eventually disappear with them.
Clarity of thought does not come from solitary contemplation alone, nor from verbal debate alone.
One must remain within the current of the times, receive feedback and resistance from reality, and learn through actual experience.
Debate can sharpen understanding. Reality is what tests it.
So I am willing to write these things down.
Not because I have found the answers, but precisely because I have not.
There is disappointment. There is anger. There are moments when I question other people, and moments when I question my own judgment.
I do not believe I stand outside civilisation with a sufficiently elevated position from which to judge everyone else.
I am simply part of it.
I see certain things. I experience certain reactions. And some questions refuse to go away.
If these words leave anything behind, I hope it is not a conclusion, but a table.
A place where different people can sit down with their own experiences, limitations and judgments, and continue the conversation.
中文
我记录下这些景象，留存对于这一切的观察与思索，并不是因为我认为一篇文章可以让某种历史惯性自行扭转。
我甚至不确定自己是否已经看清了问题。
我只是越来越觉得，如果一个人对现实产生了困惑，却因为害怕自己的判断不够完整，而什么都不记录，那么这些困惑最终也只会留在自己心里，随着时间过去而消失。
思想的澄清，从来不是仅凭闭门冥想，也不是单单依靠言语间的激辩诘问。
人必须投身于时代洪流，承接现实世界的反馈与磨砺，在真实的实践里感知世界。
激辩可以用来打磨认知，而现实，才是检验思考的基石。
所以，我愿意把这些东西写下来。
不是因为我已经找到了答案，而恰恰是因为我还没有。
我会有失望，也会有愤怒；会怀疑别人，也会怀疑自己的判断。
我并不认为自己站在文明之外，拥有一个足够高的位置去评判所有人。
我只是身处其中，看见一些事情，产生一些无法轻易放下的疑问。
如果这些文字能够留下什么，我希望留下的不是一个结论，而是一张桌子。
让不同的人可以坐下来，带着各自的经验、局限和判断，继续讨论。
On “the Right Direction”
关于“正确方向”
English
I once wrote:
The ascent of civilisation is never defined by victories in local contests. True progress lies in holding fast to the right direction and constantly adjusting the path.
I still believe in the general spirit of that thought. But I have also come to realise that “the right direction” is itself a question that deserves examination.
Who defines what is right?
What should count as progress?
Does a longer lifespan necessarily mean a better civilisation?
Does more knowledge necessarily produce a better life?
As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, should it primarily be used to increase productivity, expand commercial value, improve public services, advance scientific discovery—or for purposes we have not yet imagined?
I have no authority to answer these questions on behalf of humanity.
I am not even certain that humanity has sufficiently mature answers yet.
So I would now put the thought differently:
The forward movement of civilisation should not be defined solely by the outcome of local contests. Perhaps what matters more is whether we continue to examine where we are going, and whether we remain willing to adjust our path in response to reality.
Perhaps distance and elevation are indeed secondary measures.
What matters first is whether we are still paying attention to the road.
中文
我曾经写下：
文明向上的旅程，从来不由局部博弈的胜负定义。真正的前行，是坚守正确的方向，并持续校准自身的路径。
现在我仍然相信这句话的大意，但我也意识到，“正确的方向”本身就是一个需要被追问的词。
谁来定义正确？
什么才算进步？
更长的寿命一定意味着更好的文明吗？
更多的知识一定意味着更好的生活吗？
更强大的人工智能，究竟应该优先用于提高生产效率、扩大商业价值、改善公共服务、探索科学，还是用于那些今天我们甚至还没有想到的事情？
这些问题，我没有资格替整个人类回答。
我甚至不能确定，人类是否已经拥有足够成熟的答案。
所以现在，我更愿意把原来的句子改成：
文明向前的旅程，不应只由局部博弈的胜负来定义。更重要的，也许是我们能否不断审视自己正在走向哪里，并在现实的反馈中持续校准路径。
至于所谓“远近”，也许确实只是次要的尺度。
真正重要的，是我们是否还在认真看路。
The Question I Want to Leave Behind
我想留下的，只是一个问题
English
Much of what I have seen in the news today has reminded me that humanity has entered an unusual stage.
We are building increasingly powerful tools, together with increasingly vast systems of energy, computing and infrastructure to support them. At the same time, humanity continues to struggle with problems that existed centuries, even millennia, ago: interests, power, boundaries, competition, fear, misunderstanding and distrust.
Technology can change the boundaries of what we are capable of doing.
Whether it can change our judgment, patience and breadth of vision at the same pace remains an open question.
Perhaps one of the defining tensions of our time is therefore not simply what humanity is capable of doing, but this:
As our capabilities grow so rapidly, are we learning, at the same pace, what those capabilities are actually for?
I do not have the answer.
But I want to leave the question here.
Perhaps that is one reason for G4 Editor’s Observation.
Not to answer for the age.
Only to look carefully while the age is passing.
中文
今天的许多新闻让我再次意识到，人类已经进入一个非常特殊的阶段。
我们正在制造越来越强大的工具，也正在为这些工具建设越来越庞大的能源、计算和基础设施系统。与此同时，人类仍然在处理那些几百年前、甚至几千年前就存在的问题：利益、权力、边界、竞争、恐惧、误解，以及彼此之间难以消除的不信任。
技术可以改变能力的边界。
但技术是否能够同步改变我们的判断力、耐心和视野，仍然是一个开放的问题。
也许，我们这个时代最值得观察的张力之一，并不是“人类究竟能够做到什么”，而是：
当我们的能力增长得如此迅速时，我们有没有以同样的速度，学会理解这些能力究竟应该被用于什么？
我没有答案。
但我想把这个问题留下来。
也许这就是 G4 Editor’s Observation 存在的一个理由。
不是替时代作答。
只是，在时代经过的时候，认真看一看。